Simulate your strategy's expected profitability across different win rates and R:R ratios. See the full profitability matrix and know if your strategy has a positive edge.
HOW IT WORKS
Input capital, risk per trade %, your current win rate, and average R:R ratio.
Choose how many trades to simulate — 100 is a good statistical sample for evaluating a strategy.
See expected profit for your exact parameters, plus a full matrix showing all win rate × R:R combinations — green = profitable, red = losing.
FAQ
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss), expressed in R multiples. A positive expectancy means your strategy makes money over many trades on average. Example: 50% win rate with 1:2 R:R has expectancy of (0.5 × 2) − (0.5 × 1) = +0.5R per trade.
Yes — absolutely. At 40% win rate with 1:2 R:R, expectancy = (0.4 × 2) − (0.6 × 1) = +0.2R per trade. After 100 trades, expected profit = 20R. The key insight: a higher R:R ratio allows profitability with lower win rates.
40-55% win rate is common for disciplined intraday traders. Less than 40% with R:R below 2:1 is a losing strategy in the long run. Greater than 65% win rate is uncommon — most traders claiming this are either cherry-picking data or have very tight targets with wider stops (which actually reflects a poor R:R).
Statistically, you need at least 30-50 trades to draw any conclusions, and 100+ trades to have reasonable confidence. With fewer trades, variance dominates. A 55% win rate strategy can easily show 40% or 70% win rates in a sample of 20 trades — these are not meaningful signals.
Track your real win rate and R:R
TradeLyser calculates your actual win rate, average R:R, and expectancy from real trades — so you know if your strategy has a real edge.