What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Value at Risk estimates loss threshold not expected to be exceeded at given probability (e.g. 95% 1-day VaR).
Formula
VaR = Position Value × Daily Volatility × Z-Score
Indian market context (NSE)
Reference levels: Nifty 50 at 24,300, Reliance Industries at ₹1,300, Bank Nifty futures at 55,000 (lot size 30). Examples below show how Value at Risk (VaR) shows up on Indian index, equity, and futures books — update to live quotes in your journal.
Nifty 50 perspective
Value at Risk (VaR) on Nifty (24,300): define rupee risk per trade before the 9:15 open; index gaps on global cues can skip planned value at risk (var) levels — use exchange-supported stop types and size for gap beyond stop.
Reliance Industries perspective
Value at Risk (VaR) for Reliance (₹1,300): stock circuits and 20% band limits can trap positions past your planned exit; keep value at risk (var) outside circuit freeze zones where possible.
Bank Nifty futures perspective
Value at Risk (VaR) on Bank Nifty (55,000): span margin changes intraday — a valid value at risk (var) at entry may be too large after a margin hike; recheck buying power before adding lots.
How to validate
- Validate Value at Risk (VaR) with a written rule and at least 20 tagged examples.
- Ask whether the reading changed because of process or one outlier trade.
- Compare two independent time windows before adjusting position size.
- Document validation date in weekly review notes.
How to track in TradeLyser
- Mention Value at Risk (VaR) in trade comments when it influenced the decision.
- Mirror the term in weekly review questions for consistency.
- Filter trades mentioning the concept during monthly analytics.
- Cross-link to related glossary terms in mentor notes.
Best practices
- Teach Value at Risk (VaR) the same way to mentors and peers — shared vocabulary.
- Re-read this page after major rule changes to Value at Risk (VaR) usage.
- Prefer one improvement per month over ten simultaneous tweaks.
- Link learn articles when Value at Risk (VaR) needs deeper study.
Common pitfalls
- Using Value at Risk (VaR) buzzwords without measurable journal tags.
- Copying another trader’s Value at Risk (VaR) rule without sample size context.
- Skipping weekly review because the term feels “basic”.
- Letting social media redefine Value at Risk (VaR) mid-quarter.
How to use this in TradeLyser
Optional weekly VaR on open book; reduce heat if VaR breaches plan.
Related terms
Drawdown at any moment is the gap between your latest equity peak and today’s equity. Max drawdown is the largest such gap over a period.
Portfolio heat sums risk at stop (or max loss) across open trades, often as % equity.
Risk budget is planned R or rupees you may lose in a period or across active setups.
Standard deviation quantifies how much returns vary around their average.
FAQ
VaR for retail day trader?
Optional — portfolio heat simpler daily.
Parametric vs historical VaR?
Historical needs long trade history per tag.
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