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Market Structure
Updated 2025-06-04·Editorial policy·Trading system

What is Market Cycle?

Market cycles describe recurring phases of expansion, peak, contraction, and trough.

Formula

Price above a rising 30-week moving average = Stage 2 (markup); price below a falling 30-week MA = Stage 4 (markdown). This single filter filters out the majority of losing trades.

Indian market context (NSE)

Reference levels: Nifty 50 at 24,300, Reliance Industries at ₹1,300, Bank Nifty futures at 55,000 (lot size 30). Examples below show how Market Cycle shows up on Indian index, equity, and futures books — update to live quotes in your journal.

Nifty 50 perspective

Market Cycle on NSE cash and Nifty (24,300): co-movement with global futures (SGX/GIFT) affects open print — log pre-market cue in journal.

Bank Nifty futures perspective

Market Cycle visible in Bank Nifty depth at 55,000: banking basket drives ~40% of index move; watch HDFC/ICICI/Kotak contribution when interpreting market cycle.

How to validate

  • Validate Market Cycle fills against broker contract notes monthly.
  • Measure median slippage in points/₹ for Market Cycle on Bank Nifty vs mid-caps.
  • Flag sessions with abnormal rejections or partial fills for separate review.
  • Compare limit vs market tags only on symbols with similar liquidity.

How to track in TradeLyser

  • Record order type, limit price, fill price, and latency on the trade.
  • Tag “slippage > plan” when Market Cycle fills worse than expected.
  • Monthly slippage report by symbol and order type in analytics.
  • Reconcile with broker order log quarterly.

Best practices

  • Choose Market Cycle before the move, not after FOMO entry.
  • Default to limits on illiquid mid-caps; markets on urgent exits only.
  • Log rejected orders — they reveal unrealistic limit discipline.
  • Review slippage in R-multiples, not only rupees.

Common pitfalls

  • Chasing with market orders after Market Cycle already moved.
  • Using limits on fast Bank Nifty breaks without timeout rules.
  • Not recording partial fills — skews performance stats.
  • Assuming broker fills match intended Market Cycle every time.

How to use this in TradeLyser

Annual review maps which setups worked in which cycle phase.

Related terms

FAQ

Predict cycle turns?

Humility — use risk limits not forecasts.

Intraday ignore cycles?

Still note weekly trend bias from cycle.

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