What is Win Rate?
Win rate is the share of your closed trades that closed in profit after costs. It tells you how often you are right — not how much you make when you are wrong.
Formula
Win Rate = (Winning trades ÷ Total closed trades) × 100
Indian market context (NSE)
Reference levels: Nifty 50 at 24,300, Reliance Industries at ₹1,300, Bank Nifty futures at 55,000 (lot size 30). Examples below show how Win Rate shows up on Indian index, equity, and futures books — update to live quotes in your journal.
Nifty 50 perspective
Nifty opening-range breakout system showing 58% win rate over 80 trades still loses money if average loss exceeds average win — pair with payoff ratio in TradeLyser.
Reliance Industries perspective
Reliance pullback trades at 62% win rate with average win ₹900 vs loss ₹1,400 implies negative expectancy despite “feeling” successful.
Bank Nifty futures perspective
Bank Nifty 45% win rate can be profitable if winners capture 2.5R on 55,000 handles — journal R-multiples, not win rate headlines.
What win rate does and does not tell you
Win rate is a frequency metric. Two traders can both show 55% win rate while one compounds and the other bleeds — because average win size, fees, and slippage differ. Use win rate to describe your playbook, not to score your edge alone.
Reference ranges by style
| Style | Typical win rate band | Pair with |
|---|---|---|
| Scalping / micro intraday | 50–65% | Avg win vs avg loss, cost per round trip |
| Intraday swing | 45–58% | Expectancy per trade, time-of-day tags |
| Positional swing | 35–52% | R-multiple distribution, max drawdown |
| Option premium selling | 60–80% | Tail-loss frequency, margin stress tests |
Worked example (Indian account)
Suppose you tagged 40 Bank Nifty futures trades in TradeLyser last month. Twenty-four closed green and sixteen closed red before costs.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 40 |
| Winning trades | 24 |
| Win rate | 60% |
| Next check | Profit factor and avg R on the same tag |
How to validate
- Minimum sample: 30 closed trades on one strategy tag before trusting Win Rate.
- Check for one outlier week inflating Win Rate — export largest winners and losers.
- Recompute Win Rate after including brokerage, STT, and slippage on F&O tags.
- Compare Win Rate on the same date range as profit factor and max drawdown.
How to track in TradeLyser
- Open Strategy Board or analytics → filter by strategy tag and review period.
- Locate the widget or column reporting Win Rate (or export trades to compute manually).
- Store snapshot values in weekly review: Win Rate, profit factor, drawdown, trade count.
- If Win Rate is custom, add a spreadsheet column fed from TradeLyser CSV export.
Best practices
- Publish Win Rate per strategy, not only at account level.
- Use the same calculation window (weekly vs monthly) year-round.
- Pair Win Rate with sample size in every review slide or note.
- Document formula used so mentors interpret the same number.
Common pitfalls
- Changing rules after fewer than 20 trades because Win Rate moved slightly.
- Mixing intraday and positional tags when computing Win Rate.
- Ignoring costs so Win Rate looks better than banked P&L.
- Letting one outlier trade dominate the Win Rate reading.
How to use this in TradeLyser
Filter Trades by strategy tag and date range, then open the win-rate widget or strategy dashboard. Compare win rate alongside average win, average loss, and profit factor — never in isolation. If you run multiple setups under one tag, split tags first.
Reference guide
| Context | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Intraday index (illustrative) | 52–62% with positive expectancy | Chasing 75%+ by cutting winners early |
| Swing equity (illustrative) | 38–50% with planned R:R ≥ 1:2 | Reviewing after fewer than 30 tagged trades |
Related terms
Expectancy answers whether your edge pays each time you repeat the setup. Positive expectancy means the system earns over many trades; negative expectancy means it bleeds even with a high win rate.
Profit and loss (P&L) is the change in value from trading activity. Realised P&L locks at exit; unrealised P&L marks open positions to market.
Profit factor summarises whether total winning rupees outweigh total losing rupees over a window. Below 1.0 means net losing; above 1.0 means net winning before you judge consistency.
Risk-reward ratio frames whether a setup pays enough when you are wrong often. A 1:3 plan risks ₹1,000 to target ₹3,000 — independent of whether you hit the target.
By trader level
Start here — essential concepts
New to trading or journaling? These are the core terms you need to understand before anything else.
FAQ
Should breakeven trades count as wins?
Pick one rule and keep it for the whole sample. Many journals exclude breakevens from both win and loss counts so the rate reflects decisive outcomes.
What win rate is “good” for Nifty scalpers?
There is no universal target. A viable scalping system often sits in the low-to-mid 50s if average wins exceed average losses after brokerage and STT.
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